CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z WED 28/01 - 06Z THU 29/01 2004
ISSUED: 27/01 22:37Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

General thunderstorms are forecast across Much of the North Sea, the English and Scottish east coast, the Benelux countries, northwestern Germany.

General thunderstorms are forecast across The Ionean Sea, extreme western Greece and southwestern Albania as well as much of the Aegean Sea and the surrounding coasts.

SYNOPSIS

Wednesday at 06Z...a broad area of low pressure with its centre just west of Scandinavia is expected to dominate the mid- and upper-level flow over Europe. A shortwave trough located along a line from the northwestern Balkans to northeastern Spain is forecast to move eastsoutheastward. Over northwestern Europe a strong northerly jet on the low's western flank is forecast to move southward. An intensifying shortwave trough embedded is expected to move southward.

DISCUSSION

...The Netherlands, Belgium and southeastern England...
Within the unstable polar air flowing southward over the North Sea, various mesoscale disturbances are expected to develop, affecting the English east coast, Belgium, The Netherlands and Germany. Especially ahead of the sharpening shortwave trough... forecast to be just north of Scotland at 06Z and over the southern North Sea at 18Z... there is the potential of rapid development of a polar disturbance tomorrow afternoon and evening. South of it, a quite strong low-level wind field may then develop. Associated with the disturbance, a few linearly organized storm clusters are expected that may produce gusts near severe levels.

In case both a strong wind field and an abrupt wind shift line develop, a chance of short-lived rotating updrafts, bowing elements exists, implying an enhanced threat of very strong gusts. If this scenario becomes likely, an upgrade to slight risk may be issued later on.

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